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Will Humanity Ever Colonize Other Worlds?

July 14, 2008 on 10:09 am | In Astronomy, Life, Q & A |

No, this isn’t Star Trek or Battlestar Galactica. This isn’t even about exploring new worlds. Starts With A Bang reader Daniel wants to know whether humanity has a chance to preserve itself past the death of Earth:

It seems to me that the distances are just too great for us to pull off even a one-way trip to another solar system in an effort to preserve the species before our own solar system becomes uninhabitable. Even if we could deliver people to another solar system, I am skeptical that they would find an inhabitable planet when they got there, and I don’t think that they will be able to search the stars of the Milky Way for a new home indefinitely.

Well, there are three steps that we’d have to take in order to do it, and each one presents tremendous difficulties.

  1. Find a planet or moon in a different star system that is hospitable to human life.
  2. Send enough people, equipment, and diverse enough plants and animals to support a population of apex predators (like us) in a sustainable, long-term fashion.
  3. Design and build a spacecraft capable of making a successful one-way voyage to that remote star system.

Let’s start with the first step. What do we mean by “hospitable to human life,” anyway?

The artist’s rendering above is of Gliese 581 c, a rocky planet orbiting a star with the right temperature to support liquid water. That’s a big start, but there are other things we need to learn first in order to determine whether this planet is any good for us:

  • Is there actually liquid water on the surface? This one is actually relatively easy to figure out, and we should be able to do it in the next few years. All planets rotate; if a planet is all rock, like Venus, then it always reflects (roughly) the same amount of light, regardless of what hemisphere faces us. But if it’s covered in water, like Earth, then there’s a big difference between when Eurasia is facing us and when it isn’t! We should be able to detect this within the next decade.

  • Does this planet have an atmosphere? Does it have, moreover, the right atmosphere for breathing? Remember, the only way we got an atmosphere with enough Oxygen in it to support multicellular life, and its breathing on land, was through 3 billion years of plant- and bacteria-life emitting Oxygen into the atmosphere. We can figure this out through high-resolution molecular spectroscopy, however, a technology within reach within the next century.
  • Is the rest of the atmosphere (the non-Oxygen part) toxic to humans? Is it thick enough to breathe? We can, fortunately, figure this out in much the same way, and again, I expect it can be done within the next century.

  • The last question that I would want answered is this:

    Is the soil rich enough to support the rapid and excessive growth of multicellular plant life?

    This is a more difficult one to discover, in the sense that I don’t know a way to find the answer other than to send a probe to investigate, dig through the soil, and radio a signal back to us. Why is this important? Because we want good things to survive on, like chocolate milk, cereal, and potatoes. Sending a probe will take at least thousands of years, though, so this one may require a better solution.

So, once that’s taken care of what do we want to send?

No, not like Noah’s Ark! I would assume the best way to do it is to send a vast collection of seeds of anything and everything we’d want to grow, which should keep indefinitely; part of the beauty of seeds. As for the animals, I’m going to recommend something that sounds like complete crazy fiction, and which may be. You see, the huge danger is having to have a large number of resources available during the journey to keep generations and generations of animals of all types around to survive. How dreadful would that be on a journey, and how much, in resources, would it take? The answer is probably something like this:

That’s not quite feasible (yet). So I recommend the development of an artificial incubator, capable of incubating embryos until they’re ready to live on their own, as well as millions of frozen embryos of animals of all species. (Including the ones that come in their own shelled eggs.) These should be set up on the new planet using solar/wind power to power them, which will be abundant on our arrival. It would take a large study of animal behavior and parenting practices, because we (as humans) would have to take care of parenting for the first generation of that species (at least!) when we landed on the planet. But this means we can make a payload of a few ten-thousand tons, rather than millions or possibly billions of tons!

It would probably be a good idea to keep a skeleton crew of humans alive during the journey, with enough resources for them to survive and reproduce along the trip, though.

The last part, then, is designing a spaceship for the journey. Let’s assume that the life-supporting-planet “candidate” at the top, Gliese 581 c, is actually the right distance for us. We’ve got to go about 20.5 light years, in that case, or about 194 trillion kilometers (for comparison, that’s over a million times greater than the distance to the Sun.) Although there are plenty of slow ways to get there, I’d like to focus on the smartest way to make the trip.

It requires that we develop a nuclear fusion engine. Why? Because, other than matter-antimatter annihilation, nuclear fusion is the most energy-efficient reaction in the Universe. Hydrogen is light and abundant, and for every 4 hydrogen atoms that get fused into one helium atom, we get about 28 MeV of energy out of it, or, in other words, if we burned 1 kg of hydrogen per day, we’d get out about 8 GigaWatts of power, continuously. We would start at rest, want a constant force (i.e., constant acceleration), and would lose the mass as we burned it. We’d accelerate for the first half of the journey, turn around, and decelerate at a constant rate for the second half. If we calculated well, we should get to the star in roughly its rest frame.

How long would this take? Much quicker than you’d think; this online calculator shows that even though it would take over 22 Earth years, this would “only” be a little over 6 years on the spaceship, due to relativistic effects. So there’s no need to worry about reproduction, after all! The big question is how to get that much power out and logistically design the spacecraft, especially since we don’t even have fusion technology yet.

But this isn’t bad, and I think that within a few hundreds years this will not only be plausible, but there will be a drive to do it. Thanks for the great question, Daniel!


73 Comments »

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  1. Would we be able to reliably detect a planet with relatively little water/ground?

    Or what if, say, the Northern hemisphere was all water and the South all ground? Sorta like Mars with oceans, I s’pose.

    Comment by Sili — July 14, 2008 #

  2. Sili,
    The size of the effect you’re going to see is dependent on the difference between the hemisphere that faces you with the most water vs. the least. If you had something like Earth, where the difference between the water coverage of the max/min hemisphere is maybe 20%, you’d need to be able to measure to that accuracy. For a planet that was more uniform, that had a difference of maybe only 1%, you’d need a 1% accuracy. This doesn’t require any more equipment, however; just longer observing times.

    Comment by ethan — July 14, 2008 #

  3. Wow Ethan, thanks for the awesome post – lots to think about there! It’s great to find out that the technology needed to analyze extra-solar planets for surface water and the right atmospheric conditions is not so far away. I especially like your artificial incubator idea – no need to bring cattle and chickens, just embryos. And I had no idea that a nuclear fusion engine may be plausible within just a few hundred years and would so drastically reduce the time required to make such a long journey.
    I have a few questions. You said that sending a probe to investigate the soil on an extra-solar planet would take at least thousands of years. But once we have a nuclear fusion engine, we could power our probe(s) with that and get our data much faster, couldn’t we? Was the thousands of years estimate based on relatively current technology? And if we find a planet full of life like the earth, might we encounter viruses that would wipe us and all of our imported life forms out once we were exposed to them when we took our first breaths of this new atmosphere? Or would it be possible for our probes to alert us to their existence and send back the data required to develop vaccines or some other means to combat them? Sharks and saber-toothed tigers and carnivorous dinosaurs we can deal with, but foreign viruses and bacteria seem like cause for concern. And if our nuclear fusion powered spaceship is travelling at the speeds needed to make such a long trip in such a short time, what would the odds (and the results) be if we hit even a very small object along the way? Is it feasible that we could detect objects that lay in our path in time to avoid them at those speeds, or would we just have to take our chances?
    Thanks again for a fascinating post. I’m much more optimistic now that humans will survive the death of our planet and solar system sometime within the next 500 million to 3.5 billion years. Seems like even 500 million years is plenty of time to develop the technology and do what we have to do to find a new home in another solar system based on the rate of advancement you are predicting in just the next few hundred years. I’m going to dig out the old Samsonite tomorrow and get ready for The Big Expedition!

    Comment by foxriverdan — July 14, 2008 #

  4. […] Will Humanity Ever Colonize Other Worlds? | Starts With A Bang! […]

    Pingback by Daily Links - July 15th « The Four Part Land — July 15, 2008 #

  5. Dan,

    I think my artificial incubator idea and freezing embryos is a really good one, also. I think that you’ve hit on the two biggest dangers; if it supports life, there’s a good chance that there is life, and that it will learn to feed off of us once we arrive. I don’t know the biology of how to combat that.

    As for the space debris concern, I don’t know what we’ll do for sensors. Large objects *should* be easy to see and avoid, but what about smaller ones, say, on the order of 1 mm to 1 m across? Having a grain of sand hit you at close to the speed of light isn’t exactly a cup of tea, but having a Buick-sized object hit your spacecraft at those speeds could be devastating.

    I also don’t know what to do about the energy concerns for powering a fusion engine. I should maybe sit down and do those calculations. There are obstacles, to be sure, but perhaps half-a-billion years is enough time to figure it out.

    Glad you like the post!

    Comment by ethan — July 15, 2008 #

  6. Also, who knows. When the correct theory of quantum gravity is found this may enable envisioning new technology which would allow mankind to maniplate spacetime itself. This is not terribly too far out. No one envisioned electronics prior to late 1800s and how quantum mechanics would change this for the better in the 1950s. The technology we have now cannot just be it.

    Comment by mark a. thomas — July 15, 2008 #

  7. […] Posts Not So Fast to the Next Star…What it means to miss AcademiaWill Humanity Ever Colonize Other Worlds?Weekend Diversion: Superheroes and PoliticsThe Night The Lights Went Out Came On!How and Why does […]

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  8. I’m glad you think so. At the very least, I find it really absurd when anyone, however learned, says it’ll NEVER be possible. Considering the technology we’ve developed just in the past couple of hundred years, to speculate on what will or won’t be possible in a thousand or a million or a billion years is absurd. All we really need to do is avoid any much sooner devastation, whether through war or pollution or natural disaster like a meteor strike.

    Comment by benhead — July 16, 2008 #

  9. Ben, I think you’re right that when most people (even the educated ones) say never with respect to this problem, they’re being short-sighted. Because it’s not “never” as in there’s a physical limitation, like perpetual motion, it’s never as in “I don’t know how to make this work.”
    But I agree with you, because some of us learn. That’s all it will take, I think.

    Comment by ethan — July 17, 2008 #

  10. Even with 8 GW of energy, how much reaction mass do you need? You still have to throw something out the back to move forward.

    I’m not as concerned about suitable planets. If we can live on O’Neil cylinders in the asteroid belt, we can do it in Alpha Centauri.

    Comment by Brock — July 18, 2008 #

  11. Brock,
    Planets make things *much* easier if for the simple fact that there are resources on Planets. Without one, you’re limited to basically building your own sustainable mini-ecosystem. As you might have guessed, to do that requires something the size that’s a substantial fraction of… a planet. Might as well just get the real thing.
    8 GW of energy assumes 1 kg of hydrogen burned per day. It assumes that the “stuff thrown out of the back” has an equal and opposite momentum but negligible energy. Like photons, for instance. See the next post on not so fast to the nearest star, though, for a further discussion of this.
    Ethan

    Comment by ethan — July 18, 2008 #

  12. […] plutoid, meaning a dwarf planet outside Neptune’s orbit. Or try Starts with a Bang, where the speculation runs to placing human crews on long-haul starships using artificial incubators and frozen embryos, […]

    Pingback by Centauri Dreams » Blog Archive » On Cycles of Exploration — July 19, 2008 #

  13. Hi ethan

    The power level you mention, 8 GW, is woefully inadequate for the task. Say you want to get to 0.25c - so the trip to Gliese 581 is just 82 years and a bit for acceleration. With a perfect fusion engine burning He3+D you get an exhaust velocity of 0.088c, thus to get up to 0.25 c then slow down again you need a mass ratio of 332 - pretty steep, but let’s say it can be done. If the empty ship masses 10,000 tons, then the propellant mass is 3,310,000 tons. To accelerate at 1 gee the ship would fuse about 1.23 tons per second, at a power release rate of 428,000 terawatts (TW). As the mass declined the power would drop eventually hitting a minimum of 1,290 TW - almost a 100 times humanity’s current energy usage.

    It would be an immense challenge in fusion engineering to achieve such efficiencies and power-levels. A nuclear fusion pulse drive could do it, at lower efficiency and lower trip speed. Just 10% of lightspeed might be feasible using massive fusion bombs - like the 8 million ton “Orion” starship design that Freeman Dyson and his coworkers discussed. That would mass enough to carry a biological “sample” or “Ark” but the immensity of the effort is hard to fathom.

    A challenge to us all is to work out something smaller and more achieveable.

    Comment by Adam — July 20, 2008 #

  14. Hi Ethan,

    Excellent post & discussion. I would have to agree with Adam. The whole thing gets easier if we can reduce the mass. For me the best way of doing this is to reduce the size of the humans by also making them embryos. This also helps by dramatically reducing the life-support mass needed and also largely eliminates the risk of loosing the life of a living, breathing human.

    I would like to add a second benefit to sending humans as frozen embryos and that would be that we could more easily increase the travel time by decreasing the speed. This does two things. It helps with the space dust / micrometeorite issue and it means that we can use near-term propulsion methods. If we were to use some combination of chemical, ion drive, electric sailing, magnetic sailing, SailBeam, and/or sun diving we might be able to get a craft to Alpha Centauri in the 2,000 to 5,000 year range.

    But why not just wait some number of years until we master fusion or anti-mater technology? This would reduce the trip time considerably.

    To answer this, I would ask you another question. Why are you wanting to send humans in the first place. If it is just to populate our galaxy for the fun of it then fine, let’s wait until we can send living, breathing Captain Kirks! But if you want to establish humanity in another solar system in order to ensure that humanity cannot be completely destroyed because it is localized to one solar system then why not send such a mission ASAP? The sooner we do so the sooner we purchase the “insurance policy”. From this perspective looking at ways of achieving an interstellar mission using near-term technology makes sense.

    Comment by John Hunt — July 20, 2008 #

  15. So my thoughts on this are that Ben is right on; a lot of people worry about the technological unfeasibility of this, but I think that once you show that something is theoretically achievable, the rest is just an engineering challenge, which means it’s only a matter of time.

    Adam is right about the power level and about the mass ratio. This is going to be a very big constraint, for sure. But your solution of smaller and more achievable is, I think, a shorter-term solution. I’m looking for something to colonize another world. This gives us a few billion years to survive on another planet. Yes, biological survivability is very dangerous, as another population of bacteria, viruses, protists, or some yet heretofore undiscovered classification could wipe us out. And yes, it requires a large amount of resources, but how are we going to survive long-term around another star? The ecosystem on a spacecraft isn’t large enough to be long-term sustainable. At the very least, you need something the size of Cuba. And if you’re going to bring that much land, air, and biomass, you may as well take it with you to another habitable planet.

    And John, I agree with mastering either fusion or anti-matter technology. It would certainly make it easier to use a more energy-efficient technology. But who cares about Captain Kirk? Lest ye forget, the Shatner has also done “pioneering” shows like “Iron Chef U.S.A.” Yuck. I think there’s a drive to do it to learn more and extend the life of our species. For the same reason that people (not me) have kids. And grandkids. And care about ancestry. The future of the species is a part of that very same line of thought. I don’t recommend sending one ASAP for two reasons:

    1. We have plenty of time for this planet to still be a wonderful, resourceful place for us.
    2. We don’t have the technology to make this feasible yet.

    But maybe soon, and maybe even within our lifetimes. I think that’s badass, and certainly worth writing about!

    Comment by ethan — July 25, 2008 #

  16. Ethan,

    Let me push you a bit. How certain are you that we have plenty of time for this planet?

    How soon until we get molecular manufacturing? At that point how much longer until someone creates a self-replicating chemical or a self-replicating nano-machine? Considering our advances in biotechnology and the publication of the DNA sequence of things like smallpox, how long before someone develops a brand new virus (or even artificial bacteria) which humanity has never developed immunity to?

    In summary, how confident are you that we’ll have 100 or 200 years of safety while we develop spaceflight technology which would safely transport living, breathing humans to Alpha Centauri in about 50 years?

    I’m not confident enough that all will go well before we achieve warp drive. For that reason I think that we need to advance biotechnology to the place that we can produce people from frozen embryos and artificial uteruses and then launch these frozen cells with automated systems on a long journey to the nearest habitable exoplanet in hopes of estabishing a new human civilization.

    Comment by John Hunt — August 12, 2008 #

  17. John,

    That’s the one part of the Drake equation I’ve never bothered to consider, the “how long until we destroy ourselves”. I know we’re unique at the top of the food chain in terms of the resources we consume and the effects we have on our environment, but all other apex predators have enjoyed reigns of millions of years.

    I can, like you, concoct all sorts of possibilities for what we can do to destroy ourselves, but what makes you think that we’re going to do something that’s lethal to 100% of humanity? And what makes you think we’re going to do it within our lifetimes?

    Comment by ethan — August 12, 2008 #

  18. No need to go extrasolar. Ever heard of Terraforming? We can make the other planets in our solar system habitable, and possibly cheaper than going extrasolar. Besides, extrasolar planets aren’t likely to be habitable.

    However, if we know how to Terraform, that’s not such a big problem. Even if if we don’t, we can still colonize, by Paraterraforming.

    About power levelos required: MagSails can help for decellerating. No need to fly Brachistone. Without the need for decelleration fuel, then we need a mass ratio of 94.2 for a single stage burning He3/D in a perfect fusion engine. Using an M2P2 (Mini Magnetosphere Plasma Propulsion) for the first part would decrease the mass ratio considerably, as a consequence of the exponential function in the rocket equation (this is likely to be more than made up for by the less that perfect fusion engine, however). As an additional plus, it would double as radiation protection, cutting the overall mass. Other techniques such as the Oberath effect and gravitational slignshot can be imployed to improve the mass ratio.

    Beamed power shouldn’t be discounted, at least for the initial part of the trip.

    Comment by Tobias Holbrook — April 25, 2009 #

  19. For extrasolar colonization, there seem to be several basic obstacles that are interconnected. First, you need a target planet that is roughly earth sized that is in a habitable orbit zone around its star. Second, you need a starship able to reach that new solar system. By this I do not merely mean propulsion/fuel etc. The ship must also be able to survive the journey itself. For micrometeorites could have highly destructive effects on starship, especially if the speed differential is large. This requires some type of armor (I use this term rather than shielding to avoid connotations of star wars tech, etc.) as well as the ability to repair this armor during the voyage. Third, you need a method to allow humans to somehow survive the journey . Fourth, the colonists must be able to not only survive, but thrive on the new planet.

    Let’s assume a target planet has been found and selected either through advanced telescopes or self replicating interstellar probes, as described in this link.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Von_Neumann_probe#Von_Neumann_probes

    Now you need a ship and methods to allow humans to survive and then colonize the new planet. Let’s make the ship out of a combination of metal alloys and composite materials. This ship will have robots that are able to automatically repair damage. For propulsion, let’s use fusion rockets, which will allow 10-12% light speed travel. The hydrogen needed could be gathered from (I think Jupiter) using autonomous hot air ballon robots.

    Anyway, we now have a ship able to survive the interstellar journey that would last roughly 10 times however many light years away the target is.

    My proposal for keeping the humans alive would allow the journey to last, say, 1,000 years or more. Say the “crew” is roughly 1 million persons. Assume we have a way to keep humans in suspended animation, or hibernation. Even if there is a time limit that lasts, say, 50 years before the person must be woken up again or will die, my plan would in theory work.

    A small fraction of the crew would be awake at a time to operate the ship, with the rest of the crew “sleeping”. Depending on how long someone can hibernate for, how many people the life support system can support being awake at a time, etc. the length of each “shift” could be determined. This could range from a matter of days to a year each or something.

    This deals with the generation ship and robot-raised embyo problems.

    using fusion propulsion, we can reach the “reasonable” speed of 10% light speed. Our ship can reach its target intact with self repair robots and spare parts or whatever. Our colonists can all survive through hibernation/ being awake shifts. This leaves them with needing to be able to actually colonize the target planet. In many ways, this is actually the biggest challenge, in that the technologies needed for this are the farthest away. In theory, we know how to terraform a planet by creating an earthlike ecosystem. since we would be starting from scratch, it could be simpler than Earth’s (only a few types of grasses and algaes, etc. only a few types of animals, etc.) The key is allowing the colonists to survive. If we have 1 million, The gene pool is pretty big, and there is a large work force. Remember they can still go into hibernation until the colony can support all of them at the same time. In addition, robots could create much of the infrastructure.

    Basically, if we used existing and almost existing technologies, we could colonize another planet in another solar system. It might take a few centuries (from Earth’s prospective- maybe a few years or a decade for the colonists), and it would cost a LOT of money. But it could be done. It is just a question of political will.

    Of course, considering that all the stars in the whole universe will eventually die, and the increase of entropy will result in all energy being “used up”, the whole exercise cannot prevent the eventual death of humanity (or any life, for that manner). Maybe there is some near-magical way to reverse entropy, but that will be a task for a few billion years from now.

    The highest moral imperative of a species is its own self preservation. That is what we, for whatever reason you believe, are “programmed to do”. I feel that the human species will eventually have to colonize other star systems, maybe even other galaxies. But that first requires us to start working together as a species rather than competing and fighting all the time.

    Really cool blog by the way.

    Comment by James — September 24, 2009 #

  20. Very nice post Ethan,
    I totally agree with the facts, The time finding an entirely hospitable planet could be time spent overcoming the many barriers surrounding terraforming.Let us consider what the researchers imagine themselves is necessary in order to terraform a planet

    The global mean temperature must be increased by about 60 degrees Kelvin,

    The atmospheric pressure must be increased significantly

    Liquid water must be made available
    (In the absence of water, some proposals have suggested diverting an ice-comet in deep space, where a relatively small course adjustment could bring a collision course with the planet to be terraformed.

    The ultraviolet radiation and the cosmic radiation must be significantly reduced

    If we don’t destroy ourselves now, or let nature destroy us, it is hard to imagine how incredible the future can be.

    Its been 2000 years since Biblical times, in a 1000 more, we could have Europa. Think about it.

    Even so, a thousand years is a long time

    Comment by Ryan — November 26, 2009 #

  21. Theresz Another world out there liike uh ant iis liittlle were big then were little and thte other thing out there is bigger than us we never know what or how what kan they do 2 our planet and thts probably why our planet will not survive in 2012 i think im not sure but how we kill ants with water they will do tha same fur us!

    Comment by Joseph Aquiire — December 3, 2010 #

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