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The Solar System and the Greenhouse Effect

January 19, 2009 on 1:43 pm | In Life, Solar System |

When people talk about global warming, they talk about the greenhouse effect and carbon dioxide. I realized, recently, that a lot of people still don’t believe that global average temperature and carbon dioxide levels are linked, despite a ridiculous amount of evidence clearly showing the link, like this:

Perhaps this will make sense to people if I explain it, clearly and simply, and perhaps this will help those of you who are interested readers to explain it clearly to others. Let’s show you the science of how the greenhouse effect works.

It begins in space: the Sun shines on the Earth. What’s the simplest thing that could happen? 100% of the Sun’s energy that hits Earth would be absorbed by the Earth, and then the Earth re-emits all of that energy back into space. This would give us nice, warm temperatures during the day, when the Sun shines on us, but freezing, abhorrently cold temperatures at night, where all we do is radiate our heat away. The temperature swing between night and day would be over a hundred degrees (Fahrenheit; it would be about an 80 degree swing in Celcius).

Luckily, this doesn’t happen on Earth. It happens on the Moon and Mercury, and even on Mars, but not on the Earth. Why not? Because Earth has this:

An atmosphere. A nice, thick, layered atmosphere. The atmosphere on Earth does two things: it keeps some of the light out, and it also keeps some of the heat in. Mercury and the Moon don’t have atmospheres, and Mars’ is so thin (only 0.7% as thick as Earth’s) that it can’t really do much of anything. The atmosphere on Earth means that instead of over a hundred degrees, the temperature difference between night and day is small. This is good.

But the atmosphere can lead to a greenhouse effect, which can be bad. Let’s take a look at how the greenhouse effect works. (See picture at right.) The Sun gives off light, most of which is visible to our eyes. Some of that light, when it strikes the atmosphere, gets reflected away off of water molecules, ozone molecules, and other particles. Some of it gets absorbed by clouds, and some gets scattered randomly. Some of these things happen whether there are clouds or not, others are very sensitive to the thickness and coverage of clouds. A thick cloud cover will block up to an extra 30% of the energy from the Sun and prevent it from reaching the Earth. Why are clouds so effective? Because the Sun gives off mostly visible light, and although visible light is sensitive to clouds, without them, it passes through the atmosphere, mostly unhindered. A typical day is shown below:

That’s the first part: the atmosphere preventing some light from getting through to the Earth’s surface in the first place. But when the Earth tries to re-emit that energy it absorbed, that light isn’t visible anymore: it’s infrared light, commonly known (and felt) as heat. When the Earth emits that heat, some of the heat gets absorbed by the atmosphere and re-emitted back down towards the Earth. That’s how the atmosphere keeps the heat in. So what’s the Greenhouse Effect?

The fact that the atmosphere will let visible light in pretty easily, but won’t let infrared light out. This is how a greenhouse works: it lets in the visible light and then reflects the infrared light around, keeping temperatures inside very warm even when it’s very cold outside. Carbon dioxide is so important because it’s really good at absorbing infrared radiation, and so the more CO2 there is in the atmosphere, the hotter the Earth is going to get. I thought you might need to see some numbers to help you see the effects that greenhouse gases can have; they don’t really affect how much light gets transmitted to the Earth in the first place, but they do affect how much heat gets kept inside. Numbers, anyone? I’m going to show three numbers: the percentage of light that gets to the Earth, initially, through the atmosphere, the percentage of heat that gets kept in by the atmosphere, and the total amount of energy relative to there being no atmosphere at all. Let’s have a look at what happens for just a little bit of greenhouse gas:

  • Light in: 70% Heat reflected (no greenhouse gases): 30% Total energy: 100%
  • Light in: 70% Heat reflected (slight greenhouse gases): 32% Total energy: 102.9%
  • Light in: 70% Heat reflected (moderate greenhouse gases): 35% Total energy: 107.7%
  • Light in: 70% Heat reflected (heavy greenhouse gases): 40% Total energy: 116.7%
  • Light in: 70% Heat reflected (extreme greenhouse gases): 50% Total energy: 140%

Just by adding more greenhouse gases, and doing nothing else, we could literally boil the planet. How do we know? We have an example in our Solar System:

Venus. The average temperature of Venus is higher than the hottest temperature on Mercury, even though Venus is nearly twice as far from the Sun as Mercury is! How is this possible? Let’s look at some estimated stats for Venus, which blocks more light but has a tremendous greenhouse effect:

  • Light in: 40% Heat reflected (Venus’ greenhouse gases): 90% Total energy: 400%

Venus is four times as hot as it would be if it didn’t have an atmosphere! And that’s why Venus is even hotter than Mercury — because of its greenhouse effect. And that’s why we need to be really careful about the amount of Carbon Dioxide, Methane, Water Vapor, and other greenhouse gases in our atmosphere! And we’ve already been over how to fix it:

Will we reforest our planet? Or will we end up like Venus?


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  1. Hiya,
    A very nice first graph - clearly shows the two are linked, though i’m a bit worried that it seems to show temperature change occuring just before CO2 levels :-/ where did you get it from?
    The rest is great :-) a nice clear article, although you do sound a little despairing :-/

    Comment by imma — January 20, 2009 #

  2. Imma,

    I feel a little despair because I don’t know how to get people to stop deforesting the planet, much less to quit using the land they’re using and allow it to reforest itself. Perhaps we need to make it a social norm that people use their backyards to grow trees and/or food?

    Actually, the data show (and you can’t see it from the graph) that there is a slight lag in temperature change, which occurs just after CO2 levels! This graph is taken from the Vostok data, which is an ice core in Antartcica. Can you believe we have ice that’s almost half a million years old?!

    Comment by ethan — January 20, 2009 #

  3. Very interesting numbers. But don’t you think we can possibly change the heat energy to electricity or something? Is that possible?

    Comment by Sophos — January 20, 2009 #

  4. Ethan, I’m sure that people will change, but slowly over a generation or two - it’s hard to make people adjust how they live, especially if it’s inconvenient for them, but informing people is half(or maybe more) of the battle. :-)
    Thanks for the source, yes I’m impressed there’s ice out there that’s been around for so long, a wonderful thing.

    Comment by imma — January 20, 2009 #

  5. Sophos,

    Turning heat energy into electricity? Of course that’s possible! We call this radical idea “solar power,” and people are trying to harness it. It’s not very efficient yet, but we’re working on it. The infrared light is lower energy than sunlight, and so is less efficient.


    I agree, but I am an impatient man when it comes to causing change. I’d rather be one of the people fighting to hasten its arrival and suffering the consequences of my impatience than sitting back and letting it happen slowly.

    Comment by ethan — January 20, 2009 #

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    Pingback by Terraforming Mars: What it takes | Starts With A Bang! — January 21, 2009 #

  7. Ethan,
    Big fan of your site…but…:)
    I was going to say exactly the same thing imma said. The temperature changes precede CO2 changes, at least on this particular chart. You mentioned that it can’t be seen in the graph, but temp actually lags according to the data. So, why the graph? It’s apparently not the same data, then. If anyone is trying to refute man-made CO2 global warming, this chart is fuel to that argument. What I’m seeing is that CO2 lags temp changes, and that it is clearly cyclical, indicating that we are at the end of a warming period and temperatures are getting ready to fall. Don’t shoot me…I’m just saying what I see in the chart.

    You’ll never find a bigger advocate of preserving our planet. We are destroying it more and more every day. I plant as many trees in my yard as my stinkin’ HOA allows me to (jerks):) Having said that, I don’t mind saying I’m skeptical of many of the man-made global warming arguments. Either there are big holes in the data, or for some reason nobody is giving out the “real” data. Skepticism on many subjects is how I ended up here from another blog, so I hope I don’t get booted so quickly. Thanks!

    Comment by Brett — January 21, 2009 #

  8. Brett,

    I won’t boot you. The graph is over hundreds of thousands of years! The “lag” that I’m talking about (and that every scientist who studies it talks about) is only a few hundred years. Even if it were CO2 lagging temperature instead of temperature lagging CO2, you wouldn’t be able to see it for this graph. What this graph is very good at showing, and the reason I included it, is that temperature and CO2 track each other very well. At the very least, there’s a strong correlation there.

    Now, whether you want to talk about whether global warming is man-made or not, I’m not an expert on that. I’m an expert in the field of physics. That includes thermodynamics, radiation, quantum and atomic physics, and astrophysics. What isn’t up for debate is that if the levels of Carbon Dioxide continue to rise, they will be followed by a rise in temperature. A more recent graph (with only the last few hundred years visible, but in great detail) would show this better; perhaps you’d like this one better?


    Carbon Dioxide:

    This one is from a global warming non-believer, too. Now, is it possible that there are other factors, even other major factors, that may be more important than CO2 for temperature change? Yes, it’s possible. But we don’t know what they are. We know it isn’t sunspots or solar activity, and we know that it isn’t methane or water vapor.

    I’m pleased that you’re doing all you can to combat global temperature and climate change, regardless of what you believe about the science. I think that scientists need to get their act together and communicate their message effectively, but much like the consensus about evolution and the big bang, there is scientific consensus that changes in temperature, on average, follow changes in carbon dioxide. The data have gotten much better over the past 30 years, but we know that the big increase we’ve seen in carbon dioxide is going to be followed by an increase in temperature change. It’s only starting now, as you can see here:

    I hope this helps!

    Comment by ethan — January 21, 2009 #

  9. Also, a little global warming news today:

    Comment by ethan — January 21, 2009 #

  10. Actually, unless my memory fails me completely, temperature *does* lead CO2 in the palaeoclimate. Back then it was a feedback (warm water/soil holds less gasses than when cold).

    What’s scary about today is that CO2 is a *forcing*. *We* are pumping it into the atmosphere, unrelated the natural equilibrium. That means it’s get’s warmer, and *when* it gets warmer, CO2 starts coming out of the oceans and permafrost as a feedback *too*.

    And then we’re well and truly fscked, if you’ll pardon my language.

    Comment by Sili — January 21, 2009 #

  11. Oh yes Ethan, just remembered that infrared carries less energy than sunlight.. Most of our energy are “wasted” because it turns to heat energy, right? It’ll be good if we can change it back to some other useful forms.

    Comment by Sophos — January 22, 2009 #

  12. 22 jan 09

    Dear Ethan

    The SS & the Greenhouse Effect

    You always come up with some great themes and some great accompanying graphics, but I think you’ve had a maths slip up in para 3, sentence 5: you say:

    “The temperature swing between night and day would be over a hundred degrees (Fahrenheit; it would be about an 80 degree swing in Celcius).”
    - and it is ‘celsius’ not ‘celcius’.

    So: 180F = 100C ie for every 9F we have 5C

    Thus I think
    - if your 100F is correct then the C should be 55.5C
    - if your 80C is correct then the F should be 144F

    Best wishes & keep up the good work

    David Pickup

    Comment by david pickup — January 22, 2009 #

  13. David, you’re right, the “over a hundred degrees” is more like 140 degrees. I’ll try to be more precise next time. You’re also right about my Celcius/Celsius spelling mistake; how embarrassing!

    Sophos, IR carries less energy than sunlight per photon, but more IR photons get emitted from Earth. It winds up being a wash — the total energy emitted by the Earth equals the total energy absorbed by the Earth, and that’s why the temperature is stable.

    Sili, I didn’t know that! Thanks for the information!!

    Comment by ethan — January 22, 2009 #

  14. Thanks for being nice! Some people can get downright scary about this subject. You did bring up two very interesting points (several, actually, but two that struck me as something to follow up on). First - I certainly don’t have the qualifications (or access to the data) to study this with the intensity it requires, and so most of us are left getting general statements from scientists (to your second point) who don’t always agree. And it always makes me wonder - how can you tell a reputable scientist from a disreputable one? Thanks again, and thanks for the additional data!

    Comment by Brett — January 23, 2009 #

  15. Brett,

    The easiest way, for me, is to look at the number of scientists in the appropriate field who agree with one opinion. If over 90% agree on one side, that’s sufficient to say there’s a scientific consensus.

    Global warming, evolution, and dark matter are three very good examples of this. Yes, there are a handful of scientists (many of whom are reputable) who are investigating alternatives to these accepted theories. But the overwhelming evidence, and the overwhelming scientific opinion is that the very recent global warming (since the industrial revolution) is man-made, evolution with natural selection as the mechanism is the reason that we have the diversity of life we see today, and that some new type of matter that isn’t protons, neutrons, or electrons makes up most of the mass in the Universe.

    It’s important to work on alternatives, if for no other reason than it puts our best theories to the test, and can help advance our understanding. One telltale sign of a disreputable scientist (although this won’t help you catch all of them) is that they continue to focus on one piece of evidence to the exclusion of others; these theories are all accepted because of lots of evidence from many different sources.

    Comment by ethan — January 23, 2009 #

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  18. Your website helps the arguments against believing in global warming a lot. I just attended a presentation by my Congresswoman and her lawyer from the CEI last week that argued that CO2 rises because temperatures rise. They used the same graph you originally used in this article. Naturally the presenter (in this case the lawyer) didn’t present the data honestly because he was there to argue against cap and trade as a way to lower CO2. I’d like to know what you think about cap and trade (would it do enough, fast enough?) and also if it’s OK if I use some of this article and info. on my website.

    Comment by Shelly T. — April 11, 2009 #

  19. I’m sorry — the first sentence of that last comment should be — “Your website helps the arguments against NOT believing in global warming a lot.” I meant to say your site explains it well and anyone who doubts it’s true would find good explanations of it here. You’re right that scientists need to communicate this more often and better and you do it well.

    Comment by Shelly T. — April 11, 2009 #

  20. are you sure about this statement?

    “Venus is four times as hot as it would be if it didn’t have an atmosphere! “

    Comment by faye — April 22, 2009 #

  21. “I’d like to know what you think about cap and trade”

    Cap and Trade do not go hand in hand with global warming. Cap and Trade is a political issue… Global warming is a scientific issue and unfortunately today the two are being teamed together to push an agenda with the idea that its “good for the environment”.

    Let’s be clear about this… Cap and Trade is a tax, no more no less and this tax is using a one sided view of science to sell its self upon the people as an idea that it will somehow fix global warming.

    Correct me if I am wrong but when has a tax ever fixed anything in the history of science? Or when has politics ever had a good influence on any scientific community?

    The mixture of these two worlds is slowing becoming so one side that the scientist debating global warming are being compared to holocaust deniers… How can this be? Political opinion… We all have to keep in mind that the theories behind global warming are just that… Theories! Pro or con the nice thing about science is it’s human element and at no point should someone try and close the door on a scientific theory as being a done deal, to do so is political. There are many facts that are tossed by both sides of the issue but I generally only hear one side saying that their facts are indisputable evidence… That isn’t science… that’s an agenda!

    Is CO2 going up? Yes… Does CO2 follow temperature? Yes… Does CO2 affect temperature? Yes… Do we produce CO2? Yes… But let’s also not forget that the temperature on every planet in the solar system is also rising. Heating and cooling on the earth has been going on sense its creation on both large and small scales.

    Many in the US do not realize that the driving force behind the Cap and Trade movement are the energy companies… How is this possible you might wonder? Wouldn’t that hurt them? No… in fact it would make them a lot of money. It is well documented that companies like General Electric are supporting the C&T moment but are also going benefit greatly in the process by being able to act as a brokerage between the government, CO2 producers and the consumers whom buy the goods and services… Whom in the long run will be paying the tax… only in a very indirect manor.

    One needs to observe that Cap and Trade does not limit or change the amount of carbon or CO2 admissions… Nor does it regulate it… Nor does it govern… It’s simply an assumed tax for the usage of goods being produced and transported. A good way to look at the daily effects of this are to look at one’s own driving… One of the many proposals mixed into the current political discussion is the idea of “carbon taxing” people on the miles they drive… No matter if you drive a Toyota Prius or a 1970’s muscle car every mile you drive will be assessed with a flat carbon tax… Personally… I think I’ve about had it with taxes on most everything… especially fuel, sales and auto expenses. If fuel prices in the summer of 2008 didn’t curb peoples driving habits I don’t think slapping a flat tax on mileage will have much of an affect ether.

    One also needs to ask where this proposed tax is going once it is collected… It darn sure is not going into building giant CO2 scrubbers!

    When you see a politician like Al Gore on the forefront of a movement… be suspicious. Most anyone will agree that politics have no place in science… and that science being used for the gain of a political agenda should always be scrutinized. We learned this lesson in the 1970’s (or should have) when we were told that decreases in the earth’s temperature recorded from the 1940’s through the 1970’s were due to the manmade effects on the environment due to the industrial boom… Back then very respected scientists as well as many political groups were telling us that we were headed (inevitably) for the next ice age by the early 2000’s!

    It will take many more years of study before we have answers to our questions about global warming… There is no fast track… We don’t know our effects on anything… assuming starts with ass… But we do know that damning healthy scientific debate or following bad science with political agenda always lands us in a bad direction.

    Comment by Mike — April 29, 2009 #

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  23. This is interesting

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  24. Hey there as I can see on the graph on start isnt it possible that this is normal? As you can see evry maybe 80 000 years the teperature along with CO2 goes up and than falls down to an Ice age. By the looks of the graph I’d say this is a start of new Ice age today and all this “global warming” is just a big bubble that makes some people get really rich

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